Thermal optimality and physiological parameters inferred from experimental studies scale latitudinally with marine species occurrences.

Ocean warming is expected to occur due to anthropogenic climate change bringing a spatial shift of marine communities. Experimental data that characterize the aerobic power budget via an aerobic scope, thermal metabolic scope, or thermal preferences have been proposed as tools that can describe species distribution since they characterize species fitness or performance under different temperatures. This study tested the potential relationship between observed occurrences and different physiological studies in the Americas for 11 commercially important species in Mexico. Projections were also developed for Mexico's exclusive economic zone under different climate warming scenarios. The physiological data were fitted from optimum up to pejus temperatures and projected to sea surface temperatures for present (2003-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) for the period 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. For species with wide distributions in the Americas, the number of occurrences reported decreases at higher latitudes related to the decrease in species performance calculated from laboratory experiments. In addition, higher species occurrences are usually reported around optimum temperatures. Overall, the results suggest that pejus temperatures likely restrict latitudinal distribution, at least for widely distributed taxons. Regarding Mexican projections, the results varied widely by species. For example, in the Atlantic Ocean, Octopus maya and Panulirus argus are vulnerable to warming scenarios, while Centropomus undecimalis is not. Interestingly, northern Campeche Bank, the Gulf of California, and Western Baja California may act as thermal refugia for marine species indicating they could be assigned as protected areas to support fisheries throughout the Mexican exclusive economic zone. This research adds to the increasing evidence of the relationship between thermal niche and wild population distribution.

Exploring the effects of warming seas by using the optimal and pejus temperatures of the embryo of three Octopoda species in the Gulf of Mexico.

Using data related to thermal optimal and pejus of the embryos of Octopus americanus from Brazil and O. insularis and O. maya from Mexico, this study aimed to project the potential distribution areas in the Gulf of Mexico and predict distribution shifts under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 6 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2100. The different thermal tolerances elicited different responses to current and future scenarios. In this sense, O. insularis and O. maya thermal niches stretch from the Caribbean to Florida. Nevertheless, O. insularis may inhabit warmer areas than O. maya. Surprisingly, no area was considered thermally habitable for O. americanus, which could have been associated with the use of data of populations thermally adapted to temperate conditions south of Brazil. According to models, a warming scenario would cause a restriction of the available thermal niche of O. maya, while O. insularis could expand under RCP 6 scenarios. This restriction was more substantial in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Nevertheless, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the temperature in 2100 may negatively affect even O. insularis, the species most thermal tolerant. If our results are accurate, the fishing yield of O. insularis will increase in the future, replacing the heavily exploited O. maya in the coasts of the southern Gulf of Mexico. Regarding O. americanus, no inference might be made until thermal tolerances of locally adapted populations can be studied.